Preliminary report on the Leaf River Herd

According to recent information, the Leaf River herd population estimate shows a decline of 11 per cent since last year, dropping from an estimated 175 000 to 155 000 caribou.

The results revealed a lower survival rate among male caribou. The female survival rate and recruitment of calves is considered moderate, adding to the shift from stable to a declining trend of the herd. Furthermore, the low average winter mass of female caribou calves (43 kg, compared to a healthy average above 50 kg) suggests inadequate habitat quality, high energy costs from migration, and increased vulnerability to infections and extreme weather despite population declines.

Habitat disturbance and the 2023 wildfires have significantly impacted caribou habitat in Nunavik and Eeyou Istchee, exacerbating the effects of hydroelectric reservoirs and reducing winter range quality and availability. Since 2018, the Leaf River herd has shifted its winter range further south, with the 2023-2024 range extending southeast beyond previously recorded locations. Roads, mining sites, large water bodies, and wildfires continue to influence migration patterns, while disturbances within the herd’s traditional range have increased. By late 2024 and early 2025, caribou were actively avoiding large water bodies and recent wildfire zones, further reducing habitat quality and availability in the southern winter range. The expansion of mining in calving and wintering areas compromises habitat quality, availability, and migration routes, raising concerns for long-term population sustainability.

The Cree Nation Government has requested that the responsible ministry deploy a specialist to Eeyou Istchee to conduct further assessment of the herd’s overall health and body condition.

The Cree Nation of Chisasibi, the Cree Nation Government and the Innu Nation in Quebec have agreed that the annual harvest for the Innu communities will not take place this year in response to this recent data. Last year, due to the forest fires and their potential impact on the herd, the Innu Nation agreed to reduce their harvest from 300 caribou to 50 caribou.

Additionally, the Cree Nation of Chisasibi, with the support of the Cree Trappers’ Association and the Cree Nation Government, has issued a statement recommending strict harvest limits for the Leaf River Herd. These include restricting harvests to essential needs only, imposing a limit of one caribou per household, reporting of harvests, and encouraging collaboration among all communities and nations to apply these same precautionary measures.

The lack of consistent and reliable harvest monitoring introduces bias in population trend assessments, hindering effective monitoring of the herd and the impact of conservation measures. As a result, the effects of harvesting remain unclear and must be addressed through active leadership and collaboration from the concerned nations to establish a consistent and reliable harvest monitoring system.